ABSA- Agri Trends: Livestock Report: 05 December 2023

Agri Trends –  Livestock

Local red meat prices remain notably lower year on year.

Beef: The U.S. beef production remains under pressure, driving prices to historical highs. Prices remain under pressure in Asian markets and the Southern Hemisphere owing to high stocks and increased production. Locally, class A carcass prices continue to trade sideways while Class C prices increased by 1.6% month-on-month. Prices remain notably lower compared to the same time last year reflecting the pressured consumers. Our outlook for carcass prices follows a slightly increasing trend in the later weeks of December. The increasing bouts of load-shedding present downward price risks.

Mutton: Dry weather in Australia continues to put a strain on the extensive sheep production system, leading to an increase in slaughter numbers and export sales. The oversupply of sheep meat on the global market continues to exert downward pressure on prices. Locally, both slaughter lamb and mutton prices lost momentum month-on-month, decreasing by 1.6% and 2.6% respectively. Year-on-year, prices were significantly lower, decreasing by 10.9% for slaughter lamb and by 15.5% for mutton. Feeder lamb prices increased to levels seen last year and were firming by 3.8% over the past month.

Pork: The U.S. pork carcass price decreased by 2.6% month-on-month and by 6.3% compared to a year ago. Local porker prices increased week-on-week by 1.7% but decreased month-on-month by 3.3%. Baconer prices followed a decreasing price trend weekly and monthly by 1.3% and 2.6% respectively.

Poultry: Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks persist globally, affecting global poultry meat supplies. Locally, in comparison to the previous month, frozen whole bird prices rose by 1.3%, while fresh whole birds saw a 1.7% increase. Individually quick frozen (IQF) pieces, on the other hand, remained steady, due to ample local stocks. While supply concerns persist, there are ongoing efforts to replenish the domestic chicken flock. The expectation is for chicken prices to stay strong in the upcoming months, supported by constrained domestic supply and robust demand during the festive season.


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