ABSA- Agri Trends: Grains and Oilseed Report: 07 December 2023

Agri Trends –Grains and Oilseed 

CBOT soybeans slide as Brazil benefits from favorable weather.

Maize:  CBOT corn prices followed an increasing trend since the beginning of December driven by higher-than-expected U.S. export sales. Gains were however limited by favourable weather forecasts for Brazil. Local maize prices followed an upward trend as well supported by the slower local planting pace for this season caused by hot and dry weather. SAFEX maize prices breached the R4000 per ton mark and are expected to trade at this level for the coming months supported by high temperature forecasts during critical months of the production season. Weather developments locally and for the other major Southern Hemisphere producers will be important for price direction in the coming months.

Wheat: CBOT wheat prices rallied since the end of November fuelled by heightened demand from China. CBOT SRW increased by 7.9% month-on-month while CBOT HRW increased by 2.7%. SAFEX wheat prices increased week-on-week by 1.0% on December 5 but traded sideways month-on-month. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) revised the wheat crop’s forecast downwards by 0.7% in the fourth winter grains production forecast however the 2023/24 winter wheat production season remains favorable, with an expected crop of 2.15 million tons.

Oilseeds: CBOT soybean prices lost momentum since mid-November attributed to rain and forecasts predicting additional wet weather in drought-affected cropping areas in Brazil. These conditions have enhanced prospects for yields in the world’s largest soybean supplier. SAFEX Soybean decreased by 2.4% week-on-week following global price decreases but continued to trade sideways month-on-month.

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