ABSA- Agri Trends: Livestock Report: 08 September 2023

Agri Trends –  Livestock             

Improved export prospects for South African beef

Beef: The South African beef industry has gained renewed access to China and the kingdom of Saudi Arabia export markets. Class A carcass prices increased by 2.8% over the previous month while Class C carcass prices only saw a 0.7% increase. The increases can be attributed to the decrease in load-shedding intensity over the past weeks, but the recent Stage 6 implementation could undo some of the gains related to this. Weaner calf prices increased by 2.4% week on week, but they were 4.5% lower compared the same time a month ago. Our view is that this points to firmer intermediate demand from feedlots on the back of an anticipated retail recovery as mentioned above, with additional support coming from the positive export prospects associated with Saudi Arabia and China opening.

Mutton: Analysts maintain that global economic conditions as well as seasonal conditions indicate little hope for lamb or mutton price increase support over the coming months. This notion is supported by strained global demand as a result income pressures for consumers coupled with an oversupply of sheep meat on global markets. Both slaughter lamb and mutton prices are under pressure. With slaughter lamb prices 1.6% lower compared to a month ago while Class A2/A3 and Class C mutton decreased by 3.7% and 2.4% respectively.

Pork: US pork prices are on the decline after they peaked in July. The US pork carcass price was down 7.7% week on week and 17.5% month on month. Local pork prices showed double-digit increases month on month, increasing by 17.1% and 18.3% for porkers and baconers respectively. Pork prices are expected to increase slightly on the back of an expected lift in red meat prices.


Poultry: Local prices have traded sideways over the last weeks. More provinces have reported bird flu outbreaks over the past weeks. This, as well as increased load-shedding present supply side constraints and upside price risks however income pressures for consumers as well as the depreciating rand leave limited room for price increases over the coming weeks


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